Coalitions

In the NL (Netherlands) we like to keep it complicated.

This time (the 2010 elections for Parliament) we allow 15+ parties to participate in the elections.

Of course only 4-5 parties will actually matter, but what the fuck.... they all participate. It's democratic! Yes? No?

Today our christian 'democratic' party blew it's hat and declared to be at peace with a coalition of 4 (I mean four) parties.

Last saturday our Liberal party said they were at peace with a coalition of 3 parties...

4-party setup: about 80 seats in a 150 seat Parliament: a clear majority but will it last?

3-party setup: about 80 seats in a 150 seat Parliament: a clear majority but will it last?

The 4 or 3 parties are different parties, it's just to inform you.

They are (the 3 against 4) more different than blue against red or black against white in a rainbow spectrum.

Dutch elections are culturally inclined. They go back a 100 years (40 years before the 'polder' model was invented by German invaders. The ONLY good thing the second World War brought us).

Long live the 'polder' model.

We like to smear our collegue-party contendors.

We like to put matters straight, if only WE win.

We like our opponents (but only after the election results when they win).

We fight our opponents, only to be able to love them after elections.

We are a true democracy and we are the only country with Parliament seats for a Party for the Animals in the world. Are we great or not....

The Qu-ran

The Qu-ran is the Muslim book of Faith

We all know this a s a fact.

But is it genuine, is it the religion with the most potential?

Course not.

I (re-)started reading the Qu-ran a few days ago and intend to finish reading it from cover to cover. I use the Dutch translation by (RIP Prof) Dr J.H Kramer (3rd edition).

My first impression after reading the first 20 suras (chapters)

1. The book is a mess. It is ordered (chapter-wise) from longest to shortest chapter, thereby completely ignoring chronology.
2. The chapters show a huge number of repetitions. Items such as the unbelievers, Satan, eating laws, Thora copies, attacking unbelieving Arabs, Jews and Christians, parabels, are frequently repeated in Sura texts. Without these repetitions the Qu-rasn would be 1/3 of its current size.
3. The book has 1 (or 2) outstanding features. First it is written for every man and woman on earth, beit that Arabs are the main 'target'. This is contrary to Jewish belief that only speaks, is relevant for, Jewish people. Two, the book is downloaded from Allah itself, written down by Mohammed, a mortal, and his followers, mainly from oral sources, meaning: imperfect or unjust repetions from memory.
4. The book 'accepts' the Thora and the evangely (which one remains unknown), but only as far as Mohammed wanted it.
5. The book accepts creation, Adam and Eve, Noah, Moses, Aaron and other profets. It accepts Jesus, it accepts that Mary had a son through Allahs command: CREATE, but does not accept that Jesus is Allahs son.
6. The book has eating laws, mostly identical to Jewish laws. In fact most of these laws are copied from Old Testament Bible verses. The only difference mentionable: Slaughtered animals are only accepted as food when Allah is prayed to (so-called Halal-meat).
7. The Qu-ran has a lot of messages against unbelievers, be they Mekkaen, Jewish, Arabian or Christian. In fact, most of these statements are meant to establish the real faith, the muslim faith.
8. The book shows disdain for women, beings who are one rank lower than Manfolk, who are the rulers of any family. Even in inheritance 'laws' women get half of what manfolk are inherating.
9. Women are supposed to hide behind cloths of any kind (but only partly...), so that no arousal of sexual feelings of men other than their husbands takes place... This permits the conclusion that Manfolk is superior to Womenfolk, a most important Muslim belief.
10. Mohammed's incompetance of grasping 'real' Old testament parables leads him to tell stories out of focus, without the names of the 'real' subjects, forgetting a lot about their history, circumstances, etcetera. In short: Mohammed was only partly aware about 'real' Thora stories or chose to (partially) disregard them.
11. Because of the single most important command: Allah itself is the all-knowing, all-present 'body of government', no interpretastion of Qu-ran verses is admissable.
12. Mekkaen and Madinaen verses are frequently non-compatible. Thus Allah is sometimes in error, where the main attribute of Allah is that it cannot fail...
13. Muslim belief is mostly Thora belief 'with a twist' to all mankind.

Islamism and Judaism are mostly identical (with the exception of Jesus as a prophet).

Islamism and Christianity show bigger discrepancies except for the Evangely testaments.

Judaism and Islamism are essentially the same. the main difference being the arrival of the Messiah. For Muslims there is only 1 ending, aka the reckoning.

Let's wait a few years for an updated version.

2010 elections

About 4 years ago this Janslog opinionated about the upcoming 2006 Dutch elections (for parliament, or congress, US-style if you like). I plan to do this a second time for the 2010 elections.

This time the Netherlands (NL for short) face different circumstances. We have seen the financial crisis (or the Incompetency Crisis as I would prefer to call it), we see a receeding economic crisis, we see (in NL) a sudden rise in government debt as a result of the 2 aforementioned crises, we see an upcoming racially-belief-oriented populism on the rise (Geert Wilders), we see an ever (4 times = forever) failing Prime Minister losing votes daily (Jan-Peter Balkenende), we see the son of Croesus (called Mark Rutte, student debate champion leader of the Dutch Liberal Party) as the self-appointed hero of the masses, stating exactly the same as his predecessors did, i.e. 'markets know all, thus follow markets, thus follow me', although we now know that THIS solution has DEFAULT WRITTEN ALL OVER IT, we see a nice but politically incompetent (i.e. not political debate-capable, i.e. eat or be eaten) father of the nation (Job Cohen), who is frequently incapable of repeating details from his political manifesto..... and we see all this in a TV-program called the Prime Minister's debate.

Of course this is all bullshit.

But it is interesting bullshit.

Why?

Because all 4 of the mentioned politicians firmly believes that he (no women around) has the best PM (implicitly: the best plan) NL could hope for. Of course they are all wrong. Not 1 out of the 4 is an able leader.

Why?

Because they lack any glimpse of vision altogether. They lack the feel of the people, they lack economic finesse, they lack common knowledge about what drives people, what the country needs, what can be achieved in a single term of government (4 years in NL). They plan their party's manifesto's success for a period between 20-30 years onwards, where their decision period, their reign, does not extend 4 years.

Why?

Because the really reigning force in NL is the Central Planning Bureau, the CPB, that has an economic planning/forecasting model (that already makes them one of the usual suspects) to calculate their party manifesto's potential successes for the next 40 years (this is unequal to 4).

What is the success rate of this model?

Does any party focus on that (trivial?) piece of importancy? I tell you NO, cause they're all incompetent to see through the model's structure, base, conditions, suppositions, beliefs, hypotheses etcetera. And I tell you: this structure is outdated, completely out of focus, lacking scientific support, lacking empirical support, in short: it should be abandoned.

But it seems to be the common performance standard in political evaluation territory, so the parties all adhere to its conclusions.

WRONG! WRONG! WRONG! WRONG! WRONG!

1. When was the CPB right in its conclusions over a period of (the last) 50 years? Not in any 1 year.
2. When did the CPB ever projected economic progress (internet, bio-technology, energy, financial economics, international trade relations, international currency relations) structurally or even incidentally? Never!
3. When did the CPB ever projected economic downfall (internet, financial economics, speculation, financial disaster, international trade relations, international currency relations) structurally or even incidentally? Never!
4. When did the CPB actually predicted economic bankruptcy? Never!
5. When was the CPB awake during the EURO-years (starting at the beginning of this century) in recognising the good, the bad and the ugly countries in Euro-Europe? Never!

So, why is the CPB regarded as the generally accepted evaluator of political (economic) planning (in the short run = 4 years)?

I really do NOT know.

Other question: why do political parties in NL send in their manifesto's to the CPB to be graded as excellent/good/sufficient/bad?

I really do not know.

But I have a guess though.....

NL-political parties have people helping them, so-called professionals, so-called wise economists/advisors. Albeit that these suckers use an already 40 years old -thus outdated- model.

And they say:

Translate your party's ideals within the CPB framework, THE MODEL's framework and all will be well.

And so the parties act.

Every ounce of performance is pre-calculated based on the CPB-model's rules and regulations. If the model says MINUS, then they minimise their party's policy on this item. If the model says PLUS they maximise that policy.

Of course all within party's written declaration of policies.

On the basis of this bullshit, meanwhile realising that 70% of the voters are democratically incompetent (they never read, they THUS never read or intelligently analyse party programs, they are enraged or bewildered or appeased by one-liner statements from their political idols) and 90% of the electorate votes for personal interest and only 10% really known what they're voting for, we are at wit's end in NL. And we vote.....

We are a country that is reigned by compromise government coalitions.

In fact we have a right to this, being the inventor of the POLDER-MODEL.

No 3 party government (on a realistic ex ante prediction) can be formed after the June 9 elections.

Really strong governments (if at all) may only be formed out of a concensus agreement between 4 or more parties.....Imagine that USA, Germany, UK, OK in France and Italy it is the same...

Will be continued, take my word for it.

Sorrento

Last week we were in Sorrento, Italy. A most wonderful city, blessed with a multitude of surrounding places to visit: Herculaneum, Pompeji, Paestum (pronounced as Pestuum by Italians who have no knowledge of history, especially their own).

It was nice. It had Dutch weather (lot of rain) + about 10 degrees Celsius compared to Holland so it was very bearable.

I saw a lot of fur coats, thick sweaters, going for a simple walk, while spring is fading into summer.

I saw a lot of cripples (without the 'rollators' so well known in the Netherlands, AND without electrical appliances to move around). On the other end I saw no fat cripples, where in Holland this is mostly the rule.

Italians are super-inefficient (BUT THEY MAKE PERFECT ESPRESSOS).

They walk towards you, not knowing how to pass you, left or right, it's a mess.

They only speak italian, exceptions only a few (of the 30+ generation.

They have narrow-track Circumvesuviano lines they call trains, where metro-lines (including their internationally known grafitti appearance) would be the more appropriate word.

They have tons of restaurant staff, where half of that amount would mostly be enough.

They (in our case) promised a hotel swimming pool, where in reality there was only an empty pool (and the bar is closed at 22.00 hours). Where can I get my 21.00 hours Famous Grouse when I need it .....

They have wonderful food like 'Tagliata di filletto con ricola (rocket) e parmigiano' (12.50 euro in restaurant La Favorita, Sorrento), which should be on every italian menu in the Netherlands, it is so delicious and SO easy to make.

They also have terrible 'primo piatti' consisting of 97% pasta and 3% sauce (of any kind), which of course is a hazard to your health and especially to your body weight.

Public transport is fantastic. 1.50 Euros on the train will get you anywhere (e ritorno if needed), in super-easy trains.

The bad side:

1. No directions to world-wide known sites (Pompeji, Paestum, etc)
2. No directions anywhere
3. In Paestum no directions anywhere, but OK the temples are Greek, not Italian
4. A bus stop is/may be hazerdous to your health as it can be in the middle of a busy piazza.
5. Entry fees for a historic site are 10 Euros/p.p., excluding 'hidden' fees halfway (Capri)
6. and the 10 euro drinks/beer at the local beer joint
7. not forgetting the 10 euro sandwiches

Paestum was a very nice place to be.

It took us 7 hours of train rides (return trip)

and 5/4 hours of walking around the site

in order to see the whole thing.

But then again: it is worth it.

The Euro Failure 2010

Hi, y'all. This time it's EURO time again. Today (I mean yesterday), European politicians decided upon a 'rescue plan' for Greece (and other suckers, I mean SUCK-ers within the European Monetary Union (EMU), in short: the countries in Europe that carry [!!!] the Euro as their currency, while not having the economic right to 'posess' it). The plan amounts to a staggering 720 BILLION Euros, to be used as a means to stabilise the Euro position in international currency relations.

It will fail. It will fail, not this week, but within a year, a few years from now. It will fail. Full stop.

I, me, myself have been a Euro-hater during its reign. I, me, myself am a coin collector. In my collection no euro will ever be found. First because it IS NO currency that you can rely on, second because it is SO ugly (as a coin-type), third because I have fundamental objections to its existance (politically, socially, economically).

I explain:

I start with the Euro's conception (look to my early [2006] blog-messages on the same subject). During the exam years of the potential EMU participating countries the situation was like this:

All countries in red show bad marks (= NO ENTRY) for the admission-to-the-Euro-exam!

These figures are undeniable and were KNOWN at the time of the final 'exam'.

Nevertheless, all countries that WANTED the Euro, got in. England (or UK if you like) opted out and kept their British Pound. The same goes for the Scandinavian countries Denmark and Sweden. THEY (N O W) are the lucky ones. The rest JOINED the Euro-region although many of them had no right to.

(the above table was part of my course on 'Banking in Europe', given from 1997-2005)

What it shows, and what I warned about from 1997 onwards, is that a substantial number of countries that got accepted into the EMU, really DID NOT BELONG THERE.

What I mean to say is that the EMU started with illegal members.

I L L E G A L M E M B E R S! (I try to stress this FACT).

In 2010, NOW, we see the first victim: Greece.

We also know the next victims: Spain and Portugal.

And I predict the NEXT next victims: France and Italy!!!

Why...... Why did the meeting last sunday NOT choose for the only right option:

E X P E L L the EURO-criminal countries!!

Throw Greece O U T.

Throw Spain and Portugal O U T (you'll see that I'm right in July next's newspapers)

Throw Italy and France O U T (you'll see that I'm right next year or so)

Arnoud Boot (economics professor in Amsterdam, whoever was in HIS committee-to-elect should be ashamed of themself) went back to old-world economic nonsense theory today on Dutch television (Pauw & Witteman) and said that WE'LL SURVIVE. Beautiful but SO untrue. We will NOT survive (as Euro countries) while the purpetrators of deceit are amongst us!!

I suggest that a NEW EURO region is to be created while time is of the essence.

As their members (see the above tabel-picture) I suggest:

Finland

Netherlands

Belgium

Luxemburg

Germany

Full stop!!

The rest are LOSERS and ought to be expelled.

They did NOT do their homework

They cheated

They created an improper imbalance in home-grown economics

They (IMHO) are OUT of the game!!

AND

From a most personal point of view...

They threaten my life

Which is my pension benefit

They threaten my existance

by betting on the worst horse.

They are threatening the future existance of millions

in the EU,

That had hopes that their imbecile government officials

would SOMEHOW be able to upgrade themselves,

and finalise a really comprehensive course in financial economics

by me of course, by whoever else....

To understand that we're heading for financial disaster

in a few years.

What can I do?

I have my own business (see http://www.coop-wij.nl)

Do you have yours?

Proletarian capitalists, or M I N D S, U N I T E!!!

I could go on writing but I am at the end of my wits.

It's Now, or Never (ELVIS LIVES)

I HOPE HERCULANEUM AND POMPEJI

will not see their fate repeated in the 21st century.

I hope. I pray not, cause praying is adhering to man's most creative means of human fantasy: i.e. Religion.

I wish you well, but I have little faith in economics wizardry.

A Man.